Who Controls Light Controls the Future

Photonics, EUV lithography and Europe’s fragile technological advantage

Photonics is not a buzzword. It is the technology that carries the internet across oceans, enables chips to be etched at atomic scale and forms the foundation of future quantum systems. From fibre-optic communications to advanced manufacturing, photonics has become a critical enabler of modern societies. By 2030, the global photonics market is expected to exceed one trillion dollars. Yet at the heart of this rapidly expanding field lies a strategic chokepoint: extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.

For now, that chokepoint sits firmly in Europe. ASML, headquartered in the Netherlands, supplies nearly all EUV lithography systems worldwide. These machines are indispensable for producing advanced semiconductors below seven nanometres — the chips that power artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and advanced defence systems. But in 2025, that dominance has been challenged, at least symbolically. China has unveiled a working EUV prototype. The message is clear: technological sovereignty is no longer theoretical. It is geopolitical reality.

What Photonics Really Means

Photonics refers to the science and application of light — photons — as carriers of information, energy and signals. Unlike traditional electronics, which rely on electrons moving through conductive materials, photonics uses light to transmit and process data at far higher speeds and with greater efficiency.

This capability underpins critical domains of the modern economy. Fibre-optic networks form the backbone of global connectivity. Lasers enable ultra-precise manufacturing in electronics, automotive and aerospace industries. Medical imaging and laser surgery depend on optical systems. Data centres increasingly rely on optical interconnects to handle exploding data volumes. Emerging technologies such as quantum computing and next-generation mobile networks (6G and beyond) are inconceivable without advanced photonics.

Yet among all these applications, EUV lithography remains the most strategically sensitive. Producing light at a wavelength of 13.5 nanometres and controlling it with extreme precision is one of the most complex engineering challenges ever mastered. Today, only one company can do this at industrial scale.

ASML and Europe’s Strategic Advantage

ASML’s position is not the result of a single breakthrough, but of decades of sustained research, public-private cooperation and an exceptionally complex supply chain. German optics specialist Zeiss, US-based laser technology providers and a dense network of European research institutions form an ecosystem that is extremely difficult to replicate.

As a result, ASML has become more than a company. It is a strategic asset. Export controls on EUV systems, coordinated between the Netherlands, the United States and allies, reflect this reality. Access to EUV technology increasingly determines who can compete at the frontier of semiconductors — and, by extension, AI.

Europe’s broader strength in photonics research reinforces this advantage. Institutions such as TU Delft, Eindhoven University of Technology and IMEC in Belgium anchor a world-class research base. EU programmes like Horizon Europe and the EU Chips Act aim to translate this scientific leadership into long-term industrial resilience.

China’s EUV Prototype: Breakthrough or Signal?

China’s announcement of a working EUV prototype in 2025 does not immediately threaten ASML’s market position. Mass production of reliable EUV systems remains years away. Yet the significance of the development lies elsewhere.

The prototype, reportedly developed by a team in Shenzhen with former ASML engineers, explores alternative approaches to light generation, including solid-state pulsed lasers rather than traditional CO₂-based systems. More than eight patents have been filed in less than two years. This effort aligns closely with China’s broader industrial strategies, including “Made in China 2025” and the “Dual Circulation” policy, which prioritise domestic technological capabilities.

In geopolitical terms, the message is unambiguous. Export restrictions may slow access to advanced technology, but they also accelerate parallel innovation. The risk is not immediate competition, but long-term fragmentation: separate technological ecosystems with higher costs, reduced interoperability and fewer channels for cooperation.

The European Dilemma: Sovereignty Without Isolation

For Europe, the challenge is delicate. Maintaining technological leadership in photonics requires continued investment in energy-intensive, highly specialised infrastructure. EUV systems consume vast amounts of power. Talent shortages in photonics and semiconductor engineering are growing. At the same time, geopolitical tensions increase pressure to “secure” supply chains, sometimes at the expense of openness.

Yet Europe’s strength has never been technological isolation. Its advantage lies in governance, coordination and the ability to balance innovation with public oversight. Photonics, like artificial intelligence, operates across multiple layers simultaneously.

At the macro level, it shapes geopolitical power and industrial sovereignty. At the meso level, it defines critical infrastructure: fabs, energy systems and optical networks. At the micro level, it affects daily life — from medical diagnostics to digital trust.

Europe’s task is to keep these layers aligned. Sovereignty should not mean decoupling, but strategic autonomy: the capacity to cooperate without becoming dependent and to innovate without losing control.

Light as Power

Photonics rarely captures public attention. It has no consumer-facing interface, no viral applications. Yet it quietly determines who can build advanced chips, secure communications and next-generation AI systems. In that sense, photonics resembles oil in the twentieth century: an enabling resource whose control shapes global power relations.

China’s EUV prototype should therefore be seen not as a threat, but as a warning. Europe’s current lead is real, but not guaranteed. Preserving it will require sustained investment, talent development and international cooperation grounded in clear strategic principles.

Photonics is too important to take for granted. In the coming decade, the ability to shape light may well determine who shapes the digital world.